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Only two matches remain in the CONMEBOL region to determine which teams will head to the 2026 World Cup! In this fixture, fourth-place Uruguay hosts ninth-placed Peru in Montevideo. Check out our match prediction below.
Uruguay are guaranteed of at worst an eighth-place finish which would see them compete in the inter-confederation playoff. Their total of 24 points sees them with a dominant six-point lead over Venezuela for a spot in the top six automatic qualification spots.
La Celeste come into this matchup after a 2-0 home win over Venezuela back in June. That result snapped a four-game winless run and the home fans will be expecting their team to make it two wins in a row.
When playing on home soil, Uruguay have amassed a 5-2-1 record in qualifying with their only defeat coming at the hands of Argentina.
It’s been a tough campaign for Peru who need a miracle if they are to sneak into seventh place and a spot in the playoff. With only 10 points, they currently trail Colombia by five and the top six by six points.
Peru have made themselves a difficult team to break down but it has come at the expense of goal output. They’re the lowest-scoring team in the region with just six goals from 16 matches and have played out back-to-back 0-0 draws, the most recent coming at home against Ecuador.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Uruguay and Peru?
Our prediction for the Uruguay vs Peru match is: Uruguay win + under 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2025 between Uruguay and Peru in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.47% for a win of Uruguay against Peru with odds of 1.45 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Uruguay vs Peru is 29.61% with odds of 4.35 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 16.92% chance ⭐ for a win of Peru vs Uruguay with odds of 10 at Betfred.
Uruguay - Peru Prediction and Best Odds:
| Uruguay Peru Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Uruguay wins | 53.47% | 1.45 at 22bet |
| Under 2.5 | 79.4% | 1.98 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 12.92% | 3 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Uruguay | 29.78% | 3.9 at Vbet |
Uruguay vs Peru Form
Uruguay and Peru's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
27 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
|
9
|
12 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -14 |
Uruguay and Peru Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Nov 2024 - World Cup
16 Nov 2024 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jun 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
16 Nov 2024 - World Cup
16 Oct 2024 - World Cup
7 Sep 2024 - World Cup
11 Jul 2024 - Copa America
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Nov 2024 - World Cup
12 Oct 2024 - World Cup
11 Sep 2024 - World Cup
2 Sep 2024 - International Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
26 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Nov 2024 - World Cup
16 Nov 2024 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jun 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
16 Nov 2024 - World Cup
12 Oct 2024 - World Cup
7 Sep 2024 - World Cup
26 Jun 2024 - Copa America
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
26 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Nov 2024 - World Cup
16 Oct 2024 - World Cup
10 Sep 2024 - World Cup
30 Jun 2024 - Copa America
Uruguay vs Peru Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
40 %
40 %
20 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Oct 2024 - World Cup
25 Mar 2022 - World Cup
3 Sep 2021 - World Cup
12 Oct 2019 - International Friendlies
29 Jun 2019 - Copa America
Players list
S. Rochet
DefenderJ. Piquerez
M. Olivera
S. Caceres
G. Varela
MidfielderR. Bentancur
R. Zalazar
F. Valverde
B. Rodriguez
M. Ugarte
ForwardF. Vinas
P. Gallese
DefenderL. Abram
L. Advincula
R. Garces
M. Lopez
J. Pretell
MidfielderS. Pena
J. Grimaldo
J. Concha
ForwardL. Ramos
J. Rivera
Substitutes
F. Israel
S. Mele
DefenderM. Vina
G. Bueno
P. Rodriguez
K. Amaro
MidfielderJ. Sanabria
E. Martinez
M. Ugarte
R. Zalazar
C. Olivera
F. Vinas
C. Caceda
D. Enriquez
DefenderO. Sonne
M. Trauco
C. Inga
C. Zambrano
MidfielderS. Pena
J. Pretell
J. Concha
A. Burlamaqui
ForwardJ. Grimaldo
J. Rivera
Most goals and assists
Uruguay
Peru
D. Nunez
(5 Goals)
Y. Yotun
(1 Goals)
,
A. Callens
(1 Goals)
,
M. Araujo
(1 Goals)
,
P. Guerrero
(1 Goals)
,
E. Flores
(1 Goals)
,
A. Polo
(1 Goals)
Uruguay - Peru Key Points
- Peru are winless in their eight away matches in qualifying, drawing two and losing six.
- The last three matches between these two sides have all finished with under 3.5 goals.
- Nine of Uruguay’s last 10 matches have finished with under 3.5 goals.
- Uruguay have won five of their eight home matches in qualifying, including two of their last three.
- 13 of Peru’s last 15 games have finished with under 3.5 goals.
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Our Uruguay vs Peru Prediction
Uruguay should have picked up some momentum after their home win against Venezuela. They’re now presented with an ideal opportunity to officially book their ticket to the 2026 World Cup if they can get a point here.
Peru has to go for the win, but as we’ve seen, they lack attacking quality. Therefore, we’re expecting them to try to keep this match tight and try to grab a goal on the counter or a set piece. Ultimately, Uruguay should ease to a low-scoring victory over La Blanquirroja. Our Uruguay vs Peru prediction: Uruguay win + under 3.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Uruguay Peru
| Uruguay vs Peru | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay wins | 1.36 | 1.44 | +5.9% |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.1 | -13.7% |
| Peru wins | 8 | 9 | +12.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Uruguay is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 5.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 73.5% and is now 69.4% (-4.1%)