Germany - DFB Pokal
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Bayern Munich will hope to go deep in their quest for a record-extending 21st DFB Pokal title when they travel to Union Berlin in a last-16 tie of the 2025-26 edition. This match on Wednesday at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei between the ‘Iron Ones’ and ‘The Bavarians’ comes with our prediction of Union Berlin +2 European Handicap.
Union are looking for their third quarter-finals appearance in the past five years, while serial winners Bayern have crossed the round of 16 only once in the last five seasons.
A 2-1 defeat to Heidenheim at the weekend last weekend in the Bundesliga. That result ended a four-game unbeaten run that included two wins and two draws.
Union’s last three defeats came over their last ten matches in all competitions, and two of those have been by a one-goal margin. At this venue, Union avoided defeat in five of their last six competitive games, and even their only loss came by a one-goal margin.
Munich won 3-1 at home against St Pauli last weekend, with two goals coming beyond regular time. It was their second game over the last four competitive matches that Bayern failed to win.
Interestingly, both those matches have come on the road as Bayern come here looking to end a two-game wait for a victory (D1, L1).
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What is the prediction for the football match between Union Berlin and Bayern Munich?
Our prediction for the Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich match is: Union Berlin +2 European Handicap.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/12/2025 between Union Berlin and Bayern Munich in DFB Pokal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 18.35% for a win of Union Berlin against Bayern Munich with odds of 11 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich is 27.11% with odds of 6.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 54.54% chance ⭐ for a win of Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin with odds of 1.35 at Stake.
Union Berlin - Bayern Munich Prediction and Best Odds:
| Union Berlin Bayern Munich Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 54.54% | 1.35 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.71% | 1.58 at 888Starz |
| Both Team To Score | 61.67% | 2 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Bayern Munich | 28.63% | 4.4 at Unibet |
Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich Form
Union Berlin and Bayern Munich Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
24 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
17 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
24 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
31 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
29 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
20 Apr 2024 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2024 - Bundesliga
26 Feb 2023 - Bundesliga
Union Berlin against Bayern Munich Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
A. Markgraf
ForwardR. Skov
A. Davies
J. Musiala
Most goals and assists
Union Berlin
Bayern Munich
D. Doekhi
(5 Goals)
H. Kane
(27 Goals)
A. Ilic
(5 Assists)
M. Olise
(11 Assists)
Union Berlin - Bayern Munich Key Points
- Union Berlin avoided defeat in five of their last six home matches with their only defeat coming by a single-goal margin.
- In all competitions, Union lost only one of their last five matches, winning and drawing two each.
- On the road, Bayern failed to win their last two trips, including the draw here in November.
- Bayern failed to win two of their last four competitive matches.
- The last two matches between these sides were scoring draws including a 2-2 result in November.
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Our Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Bayern have been in great form this season, although the last four matches have shown their vulnerabilities. They could win only two of those four games with the latest requiring late goals, while the sequence also included a 2-2 draw at this venue in the Bundesliga. They are likely to remain motivated to go deep in a tournament they haven’t won for five seasons. Union have shown the appetite to take the matches deep and keep them tight.
This match could be closer too, and our Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich prediction is Union Berlin +2 European Handicap.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Union Berlin Bayern Munich
| Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin wins | 8.5 | 7.5 | -11.8% |
| Draw | 6.5 | 5.5 | -15.4% |
| Bayern Munich wins | 1.27 | 1.33 | +4.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayern Munich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 4.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 78.7% and is now 75.2% (-3.6%)