World - World Cup
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The first international break of the new season is here, and among the nations in action, Somalia plays host to Guinea. These two clash in a Group G 2026 World Cup qualifier, and below we have a prediction.
As it stands, Somalia, with one point, are already out of contention, while Guinea, on seven points, trail Algeria by eight. As they lack an approved venue, Somalia will welcome Guinea in Kampala, Uganda.
They will be eyeing a first win in this group, as a run of five defeats in six has left them rock bottom. Somalia also has the worst defensive record, conceding 11 times in their six matches so far.
Guinea will arrive for this match placed fifth in the six-team pool. They have seven points from two wins and a draw.
That draw was in their home game against Somalia and they will be expected to do better. Heading to Kampala, Guinea are on just one win in their last nine outings. That run is way better than Somalia’s winless run in 20.
However, having failed to score in five of their last 10 matches is a concern for the visitors. One of those was against Somalia, which is also among their seven out of 10 games that ended in under 2.5 goals.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Somalia and Guinea?
Our prediction for the Somalia vs Guinea match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2025 between Somalia and Guinea in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 22.82% for a win of Somalia against Guinea with odds of 15 at Vbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Somalia vs Guinea is 23.56% with odds of 6.4 at Vbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 53.62% chance ⭐ for a win of Guinea vs Somalia with odds of 1.26 at 22bet.
Somalia - Guinea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Somalia Guinea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Guinea wins | 53.62% | 1.26 at 22bet |
| Under 2.5 | 61.62% | 2.21 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 22.92% | 2.85 at Unibet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Guinea | 23.71% | 4 at Betfair |
Somalia vs Guinea Form
Somalia and Guinea's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
|
6
|
1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -11 |
Somalia and Guinea Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2024 - World Cup
7 Jun 2024 - World Cup
26 Mar 2024 - AFCON
20 Mar 2024 - AFCON
0/3 (0%)
0/3 (0%)
3/3 (100%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2024 - World Cup
20 Mar 2024 - AFCON
21 Nov 2023 - World Cup
0/5 (0%)
2/5 (40%)
3/5 (60%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
7 Jun 2024 - World Cup
26 Mar 2024 - AFCON
16 Nov 2023 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
11 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
8 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
4 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
7 Jul 2025 - International Friendlies
4 Jul 2025 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
8 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Dec 2024 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2024 - AFCON
12 Oct 2024 - AFCON
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
4 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
7 Jul 2025 - International Friendlies
4 Jul 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
Somalia vs Guinea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
Somalia - Guinea Key Points
- Somalia’s last two matches had two goals only.
- Seven of Guinea’s last 10 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Somalia failed to score in six of their last nine outings.
- Guinea failed to score in five of their last 10 matches.
- The previous matchup between these two nations ended goalless.
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Our Somalia vs Guinea Prediction
On paper, Guinea come here as the favorites, and they are expected to live up to the billing. However, history shows they might struggle in attack. In their opening six matches of the qualifiers, the visitors scored just four times.
On average, 1.5 goals have been scored in their matches in the current qualifiers. Somalia aren’t the best scorers around either, so a bet on the goals market might pass here. The last time these two nations met, it ended goalless, and our prediction for this Somalia v Guinea game is for under 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Somalia Guinea
| Somalia vs Guinea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia wins | 12 | 11 | -8.3% |
| Draw | 5.5 | 6.25 | +13.6% |
| Guinea wins | 1.18 | 1.25 | +5.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Guinea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 5.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 84.7% and is now 80.0% (-4.7%)