Africa - AFCON
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After a month of grinding group games and gripping knockouts, only two teams are left standing, as Senegal and Morocco are set to face off in the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations final in Rabat on Sunday. Both the Lions of Teranga and the Atlas Lions are hoping to be crowned kings of the continent for the second time in their history - check out our match prediction below!
Following a disappointing title defence in 2023 (2024) in the Ivory Coast, Senegal have been excellent in this competition and booked their spot in the final by defeating Egypt in Tangier in midweek. This is the Teranga Lions’ fourth AFCON final overall and third in the last four editions, but only one of those were decided in regulation time.
Morocco’s only AFCON title came way back in 1976, when the tournament did not feature a “final match,” as it was contested over two group stages. Since then, the Atlas Lions have only reached one final - back in 2004 - which they lost 2-1 to North African rivals Tunisia. Continental supremacy awaits - let’s get into the key stats!
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What is the prediction for the football match between Senegal and Morocco?
Our prediction for the Senegal vs Morocco match is: BTTS (NO).
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/01/2026 between Senegal and Morocco in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.6% for a win of Senegal against Morocco with odds of 4.2 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Senegal vs Morocco is 33.42% with odds of 2.81 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.98% chance ⭐ for a win of Morocco vs Senegal with odds of 2.35 at Tonybet.
Senegal - Morocco Prediction and Best Odds:
| Senegal Morocco Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Senegal wins | 35.6% | 4.2 at Shangrila |
| Under 2.5 | 65.43% | |
| Both Team To Score: No | 66.67% | 1.52 at Betsson |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Senegal | 15.5% | 7.5 at Bet365 |
Senegal vs Morocco Form
Senegal and Morocco Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - AFCON
9 Jan 2026 - AFCON
3 Jan 2026 - AFCON
30 Dec 2025 - AFCON
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - AFCON
3 Jan 2026 - AFCON
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jan 2026 - AFCON
30 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - AFCON
9 Jan 2026 - AFCON
4 Jan 2026 - AFCON
29 Dec 2025 - AFCON
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
21 Dec 2025 - AFCON
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - AFCON
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
21 Dec 2025 - AFCON
15 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
11 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
8 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - AFCON
9 Jan 2026 - AFCON
29 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
5 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
Senegal vs Morocco Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
Senegal - Morocco: Form Analysis
Senegal have secured five wins and one draw in this competition, recording victories over Botswana, Benin, Sudan, Mali and Egypt, while their only stalemate was against DR Congo in the group stage.
The Lions of Teranga have scored 12 goals and kept four clean sheets in their six games. Another shutout here will equal their best-ever run of five clean sheets in a single AFCON tournament.
The West Africans have won eight of their last 10 matches in all competitions (D1 L1). Notably, this will be their first game in Rabat during the tournament, with all six of their matches to date being hosted in Tangier.
Senegal are unbeaten in their last 17 AFCON games (excluding penalties)!
Meanwhile, Morocco have won four and drawn two games in regulation time in this competition. They beat the Comoros, Zambia, Tanzania and Cameroon, while playing to stalemates against Mali and Nigeria.
The Atlas Lions have scored nine goals in this tournament and conceded only once. They allowed the fewest goals of any of the four teams that reached the semi-final stage of the competition.
Morocco have played two West African nations in this competition (Nigeria and Mali) and failed to beat either in regulation time. They have only won one of their last four games against West African opposition in open play.
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Senegal against Morocco Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
Y. Diouf
M. Diaw
DefenderI. Jakobs
A. Seck
MidfielderP. Sarr
O. Niang
P. Ciss
M. Camara
ForwardI. Sarr
C. Ndiaye
B. Dia
C. Sabaly
I. Mbaye
H. Diallo
M. El Kajoui
M. Harrar
DefenderJ. El Yamiq
A. Salah-Eddine
M. Chibi
R. Saiss
A. Ait Boudlal
MidfielderS. Amrabat
O. Targhalline
Y. Belammari
ForwardY. En-Nesyri
S. Rahimi
H. Igamane
I. Akhomach
C. Talbi
Missing players
K. Koulibaly
MidfielderH. Diarra
A. Ounahi
Senegal & Morocco Squad Analysis
Sadio Mane is still the heartbeat of the Teranga Lions' attack. The former Liverpool star scored the winner against Egypt in the semis and now has 20 goal contributions at the AFCON (11 goals, nine assists).
Edouard Mendy’s four clean sheets in this AFCON are the most he has ever kept in a single edition, but he will be missing the services of his skipper, Kalidou Koulibaly, in defence for this match.
Koulibaly is suspended for this fixture, having picked up his second booking in the knockout stage against Egypt, and joining him on the sidelines for this one is Habib Diarra, who suffered the same fate against the Pharaohs.
Brahim Diaz is the top scorer at AFCON 2025 with five goals!
The Real Madrid man found the back of the net in each of his first five games before drawing blank against Nigeria. He is one shy of Ahmed Faras’ record of six goals in a single edition of the AFCON.
Against the Super Eagles, Yassine Bounou became the first Moroccan shot-stopper to keep five clean sheets in a single AFCON campaign. Another shutout will see him become the first keeper (any nation) to maintain six clean sheets at a single AFCON.
Azzedine Ounahi is expected to miss the next six to eight weeks after sustaining a calf injury in training ahead of the Round of 16. Romain Saiss has only played 18 minutes in this competition, but could feature in the squad for this match.
Most goals and assists
Senegal
Morocco
N. Jackson
(2 Goals)
,
C. Ndiaye
(2 Goals)
,
S. Mane
(2 Goals)
,
P. Gueye
(2 Goals)
B. Diaz
(5 Goals)
S. Mane
(3 Assists)
A. Ounahi
(2 Assists)
Senegal and Morocco Stats in AFCON
Senegal - Morocco Key Points
- Four of Senegal’s six matches in this competition ended with only one team scoring.
- Morocco have only conceded one goal in regulation time in this competition.
- Five of Morocco’s six matches in this competition ended as BTTS (NO).
- Seven of the last nine games between these sides ended as BTTS (NO).
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Our Senegal vs Morocco Prediction
While both these sides possess star-studded attacks, it is their defences that have shone brightest in this competition, with Senegal having conceded just two goals and Morocco only allowing one in six games leading up to the final.
Given what's at stake, neither side will want to concede first in this one, and matches between them have historically been tightly contested, with seven of the last nine encounters ending with one or neither side getting on the scoresheet. Therefore, our Senegal vs Morocco prediction is BTTS (NO).
Senegal vs Morocco - Other Interesting Predictions
Morocco to lift the trophy
Morocco have kept five clean sheets in their six AFCON games this year. In 32 previous meetings between these sides in all competitions, Morocco have won 18 and Senegal have six wins (D7).
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Senegal Morocco
| Senegal vs Morocco | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal wins | 3.6 | 4.2 | +16.7% |
| Draw | 3.2 | 2.81 | -12.2% |
| Morocco wins | 2.18 | 2.35 | +7.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Senegal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 16.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 27.8% and is now 23.8% (-4.0%)