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Matchday 17 of 18 in the CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup region sees fifth-place Paraguay hosting second-placed Ecuador in Asuncion. The stakes are high with only two matches remaining! Check out our match prediction below.
Ecuador have been one of the surprises of the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign. They’ve racked up a total of 25 points to put themselves second in the standings, even on points with third-place Brazil. There won’t be much pressure on the visitors as they have already booked their ticket to North America by guaranteeing themselves a top-six finish.
Ecuador have the best defensive record in the region with only five goals conceded in 16 games. However, at times it’s come at the cost of their attacking production. Following a 0-0 away draw with Peru, La Tri have now played out three consecutive goalless draws (home to Brazil, away to Chile).
Paraguay have been something of a Jekyll and Hyde team. They’re winless in their eight away matches in qualifying (D5, L3), but have been lethal when playing on home soil.
La Albirroja are second only to Argentina (on goal differential) for the best home record in CONMEBOL at 6-1-1. They lost 1-0 to Brazil back in June, a result which ended a nine-game unbeaten run.
This sees Paraguay on the cusp of ending a 16-year World Cup drought, needing only a point to lock up their spot.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Paraguay and Ecuador?
Our prediction for the Paraguay vs Ecuador match is: BTTS: No + under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2025 between Paraguay and Ecuador in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.55% for a win of Paraguay against Ecuador with odds of 2.6 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Paraguay vs Ecuador is 34.73% with odds of 2.78 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 23.72% chance ⭐ for a win of Ecuador vs Paraguay with odds of 3.95 at Vbet.
Paraguay - Ecuador Prediction and Best Odds:
| Paraguay Ecuador Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Paraguay wins | 41.55% | 2.6 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 69.29% | 1.4 at William Hill |
| Both Team To Score | 35.42% | 2.75 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Paraguay | 18.11% | 5.3 at Unibet |
Paraguay vs Ecuador Form
Paraguay and Ecuador's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
26 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
|
6
|
25 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
Paraguay and Ecuador Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
26 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - World Cup
16 Oct 2024 - World Cup
11 Sep 2024 - World Cup
29 Jun 2024 - Copa America
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jun 2025 - World Cup
26 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - World Cup
10 Oct 2024 - World Cup
7 Sep 2024 - World Cup
3 Jul 2024 - Copa America
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
26 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Nov 2024 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - World Cup
10 Oct 2024 - World Cup
10 Sep 2024 - World Cup
27 Jun 2024 - Copa America
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jun 2025 - World Cup
26 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Nov 2024 - World Cup
16 Oct 2024 - World Cup
7 Sep 2024 - World Cup
5 Jul 2024 - Copa America
Paraguay vs Ecuador Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
10 Oct 2024 - World Cup
25 Mar 2022 - World Cup
2 Sep 2021 - World Cup
Players list
Gatito Fernandez
DefenderG. Gomez
J. Caceres
O. Alderete
J. Alonso
MidfielderKaku
M. Almiron
D. Bobadilla
D. Gomez
ForwardM. Galarza
A. Arce
H. Galindez
DefenderJ. Ordonez
W. Pacho
F. Torres
P. Hincapie
A. Preciado
MidfielderP. Mercado
G. Plata
J. Alcivar
ForwardK. Rodriguez
A. Minda
Substitutes
J. Espinola
O. Gill
DefenderG. Sandez
A. Duarte
G. Velazquez
MidfielderB. Ojeda
M. Galarza
D. Bobadilla
Kaku
G. Avalos
A. Romero
A. Arce
M. Ramirez
G. Valle
DefenderF. Torres
G. Plata
Y. Medina Ortiz
J. Yeboah
P. Mercado
D. Castillo
ForwardJ. Mercado
K. Rodriguez
A. Minda
L. Campana
Most goals and assists
Paraguay
Ecuador
A. Sanabria
(4 Goals)
E. Valencia
(5 Goals)
Paraguay - Ecuador Key Points
- Ecuador have conceded only five goals in 16 games.
- Three of Paraguay’s last four matches have seen BTTS: No + under 2.5.
- Eight of Ecuador’s last 10 games have also seen BTTS: No + under 2.5.
- The reverse fixture in October of 2024 finished 0-0.
- Ecuador have played out five goalless draws in their last eight outings.
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Our Paraguay vs Ecuador Prediction
Paraguay undoubtedly have more on the line in Asuncion on Thursday but Ecuador will want to keep up the positives momentum. Seven of Ecuador’s eight away matches in qualifying have seen this bet come good, while Paraguay have seen the same in six of their eight home fixtures.
These sides will likely cancel each other out, resulting in a low-scoring struggle. These are two of the best defenses in the region and we’re expecting at least one of them to keep a clean sheet. Our Paraguay vs Ecuador prediction is BTTS: No + under 2.5.Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Paraguay Ecuador
| Paraguay vs Ecuador | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay wins | 2.5 | 2.3 | -8.0% |
| Draw | 3.2 | 2.75 | -14.1% |
| Ecuador wins | 2.75 | 3.9 | +41.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Paraguay is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 8.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 43.5% (3.5%)