Europe - Champions League
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On Tuesday, St. James' Park will come to life as it hosts an entertaining match between Newcastle United and Benfica in the UEFA Champions League. Both teams have made contrasting starts to the competition heading into matchday three. The Magpies are in 11th place in the league phase standings, while the Eaglees are 33rd. Let's head into the match prediction.
Newcastle United are participating in the UEFA Champions League for the first time since the 2023-24 season. It wasn't a great run, finishing at the bottom of the table in Group F.
Benfica, on the other hand, have been a consistent participant in the UEFA Champions League. After missing out on the 2020-21 edition, Jose Mourinho's charges have appeared in each edition since then. Last season, they finished in 16th place in the league phase standings. This was enough to see them reach the play-off, where they eliminated Fenerbahce before losing to Barcelona in the round of 16.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Benfica Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Benfica Lisbon match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/10/2025 between Newcastle and Benfica Lisbon in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.96% for a win of Newcastle against Benfica Lisbon with odds of 1.67 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Benfica Lisbon is 21.82% with odds of 4.43 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.22% chance ⭐ for a win of Benfica Lisbon vs Newcastle with odds of 5.5 at Bet365.
Newcastle vs Benfica Lisbon Form
Newcastle and Benfica Lisbon's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
|
33
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
Newcastle and Benfica Lisbon Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
5 Oct 2025 - Premier League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
28 Sep 2025 - Premier League
24 Sep 2025 - Carabao Cup
21 Sep 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Premier League
28 Sep 2025 - Premier League
24 Sep 2025 - Carabao Cup
18 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - Premier League
25 Aug 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
21 Sep 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Oct 2025 - Taca de Portugal
5 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
30 Sep 2025 - Champions League
26 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
20 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
12 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
27 Aug 2025 - Champions League
23 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Oct 2025 - Taca de Portugal
5 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
30 Sep 2025 - Champions League
20 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
31 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
20 Aug 2025 - Champions League
Newcastle - Benfica Lisbon: Form Analysis
Newcastle United have endured a shaky start to the 2025-26 season. Their win ratio so far after 11 games stands at 36.4%. This comes from winning just four games (D3, L4).
On Saturday, the Magpies were on the receiving end of a 2-1 away defeat in the league against Brighton & Hove Albion. That result left a bitter taste in their mouths, considering it saw their two-match winning streak come to an end.
Eddie Howe's men now switch their focus to the UEFA Champions League. After kicking off the league phase with a 2-1 home defeat against Barcelona, they managed to restore their confidence with a thumping 4-0 away win to Royale Union Saint-Gilloise.
Benfica have a 26.2% win ratio against English opposition.
Benfica have also endured a difficult start, particularly in the UEFA Champions League. In fact, Jose Mourinho's side have suffered two consecutive defeats and enters this clash seeking to record their first win.
In their opening match against Qarabag, they squandered a two-goal lead to suffer a 3-2 home defeat, and this was followed by a 1-0 away defeat against Chelsea.
The Eagles' recent match was against Chaves in the third round of the Taca de Portugal. Vangelis Pavlidis' brace was enough to see the team secure a 2-0 away win.
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Newcastle vs Benfica Lisbon last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
T. Livramento
L. Hall
MidfielderY. Wissa
Newcastle & Benfica Lisbon Squad Analysis
Newcastle United has seven players in the injury room. John Ruddy, Harrison Ashby, Valentino Livramento, Mark Gillespie, Lewis Hall, Yoane Wissa, and Jamaal Lascelles are likely to be sidelined this Tuesday.
Anthony Gordon was terrific last time out against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise. The 24-year-old scored two goals from the penalty spot. He shares the third spot among the top scorers in the UEFA Champions League with three goals scored.
Another marquee player worth watching out for is summer signing Nick Woltemade. While he has yet to make his presence felt in this tournament with just one goal, he has been clinical when it matters most, with five goals in eight appearances for his new club.
Anthony Gordon has been a breath of fresh air in the UEFA Champions League!
Head coach Jose Mourinho is missing four players through injury. Nuno Felix, Alexander Bah, Bruma, and Manu are set to miss out. Gianluca Prestianni is also another absentee, although the youngster is away on international duty.
Vangelis Pavlidis has been Benfica's go-to guy when it comes to scoring goals this season. However, the Greek international is patiently waiting in the shadows to score his first UEFA Champions League goal. Tuesday could present the perfect opportunity to do so as he leads the attack in a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Most goals and assists
Newcastle
Benfica Lisbon
N. Woltemade
(5 Goals)
V. Pavlidis
(6 Goals)
S. Tonali
(2 Assists)
, 
J. Murphy
(2 Assists)
G. Sudakov
(2 Assists)
Newcastle and Benfica Lisbon Stats in Champions League
Newcastle - Benfica Lisbon Key Points
- Newcastle United and Benfica's last competitive meeting was in 2013. That match ended in a 1-1 draw.
- Benfica have seen each of their last three away matches across all competitions end with under 2.5 goals.
- Benfica have seen each of their last three away matches in the UEFA Champions League end with under 2.5 goals.
- Benfica concedes on average 0.8 goals per game when playing away.
- Benfica has kept a clean sheet in each of their last two matches across all competitions.
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Our Newcastle vs Benfica Lisbon Prediction
Newcastle United and Benfica renew acquaintances in a competitive match for the first time since 2013. The visitors have not lost to this opponent in the last two meetings and will hope to use this as motivation to secure their first win in the UEFA Champions League.
There is reason to believe that this could be a low-scoring affair, given Benfica's solid defense of late. Their last match was a 1-0 defeat against Chelsea. In that match, they limited their opponent to just 0.93 in expected goals (xG). Our Newcastle United vs Benfica prediction: under 2.5.
Newcastle vs Benfica Lisbon - Other Interesting Predictions
Newcastle United wins the match