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World Cup 2026 qualification (UEFA) resumes this week, and on Thursday, we’re off to De Kuip to see the Netherlands take on Poland. Oranje and the White and Reds are second and third in Group G, respectively. Let’s get into the match prediction.
Owing to their participation in the Nations League quarter-finals, the Netherlands only began their World Cup qualifiers in June. They’ve won both their matches so far, beating Finland 2-0 before smashing eight without response past Malta.
Memphis Depay is already the leading goal-scorer in this group with three goals (and an assist), while Donyell Malen has two goals and an assist to his name.
Oranje are now unbeaten in their last six matches in regulation time and scored two or more goals in five of those games. The only defeat they have suffered in 90 minutes in their last 10 games was against Germany.
Meanwhile, many feel that the winner of this match will likely go on to secure top spot in the group (and secure direct qualification).
However, after back-to-back 2-0 victories over Malta and Moldova in this competition, the Owls suffered a setback in their last match, losing 2-1 to Finland on the road. Still, they have now only failed to score in one of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Poland have lost seven of their last eight matches against this opponent (D1 L7) and have not beaten them since 1979.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Netherlands and Poland?
Our prediction for the Netherlands vs Poland match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/09/2025 between Netherlands and Poland in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.13% for a win of Netherlands against Poland with odds of 1.55 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Netherlands vs Poland is 29.01% with odds of 6.2 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 16.87% chance ⭐ for a win of Poland vs Netherlands with odds of 11 at Betfred.
Netherlands - Poland Prediction and Best Odds:
| Netherlands Poland Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands wins | 54.13% | 1.55 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.53% | 1.62 at William Hill |
| Both Team To Score | 61.67% | 2.23 at Vbet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Netherlands | 23.04% | 4.33 at Betfair |
Netherlands vs Poland Form
Netherlands and Poland's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
|
2
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Netherlands and Poland Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
7 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
7 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Jul 2024 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jul 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
26 Mar 2024 - Euro
Netherlands vs Poland Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
80 %
20 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
22 Sep 2022 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
18 Nov 2020 - UEFA Nations League
4 Sep 2020 - UEFA Nations League
Netherlands against Poland Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Most goals and assists
Netherlands
Poland
M. Depay
(3 Goals)
K. Swiderski
(2 Goals)
Netherlands - Poland Key Points
- Ten of the Netherlands’ last 15 matches have ended with both teams scoring.
- The Netherlands have scored two or more goals in each of their last five home games.
- Nine of Poland’s last 15 matches have ended with both teams scoring.
- Poland have only failed to score in one of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Both teams scored in three of the last four matches between these sides.
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Our Netherlands vs Poland Prediction
The Netherlands have rebounded superbly from their heartbreak in the Nations League against Spain and are the odds-on favourites to top this group and punch their ticket to the 2026 World Cup.
After slipping up against Finland, winning this match will be crucial to Poland’s hopes of securing pole position. We’re not sold on their chances of pulling off an upset here, but we do feel they will get on the scoresheet. Our Netherlands vs Poland prediction is both teams to score.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Netherlands Poland
| Netherlands vs Poland | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands wins | 1.27 | 1.27 | 0% |
| Draw | 5.25 | 5.75 | +9.5% |
| Poland wins | 10 | 10 | 0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Netherlands is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 78.7% and is now 78.7% (0.0%)