France - Ligue 1
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Third-placed Marseille will hope to mask last week’s disappointment in Ligue 1 when they travel to fourth-placed Lille. The two sides are three points apart heading into this match, and below we have a prediction.
Lille recorded a second straight clean sheet in their last outing as they beat Le Havre on the road. It was also Les Dogues’ third straight win. They will come into this game fired up after avoiding defeat to Marseille in the last six meetings.
In that run, however, they only won once in regular time. Four defeats in their last nine matches put a dent in their recent form, and Lille will be craving consistency here.
Marseille are on a good run but will come here disappointed by their latest result. After battling from a losing position, Les Phoceens conceded late in their last game to draw 2-2 with Toulouse.
That result denied them the chance to go top of the standings off the back of PSG’s loss to Monaco. Roberto de Zerbi’s men will hope to make up for the miss here, as they are now two points off the summit.
They are unbeaten in the last five Ligue 1 matches and will hope this helps improve their recent run against Lille. Marseille’s only win in 11 meetings with Lille dates back to 2022.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Lille and Marseille?
Our prediction for the Lille vs Marseille match is: draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/12/2025 between Lille and Marseille in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.97% for a win of Lille against Marseille with odds of 2.69 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lille vs Marseille is 20.08% with odds of 3.64 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.94% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs Lille with odds of 2.71 at 888Starz.
Lille vs Marseille Form
Lille and Marseille's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
29 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 21 |
|
4
|
26 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
Lille and Marseille Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
27 Nov 2025 - Europa League
23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
6 Nov 2025 - Europa League
2 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Nov 2025 - Europa League
23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
2 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Oct 2025 - Europa League
5 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
6 Nov 2025 - Europa League
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
2 Oct 2025 - Europa League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
18 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
Lille vs Marseille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 May 2025 - Ligue 1
14 Jan 2025 - French Cup
14 Dec 2024 - Ligue 1
5 Apr 2024 - Ligue 1
4 Nov 2023 - Ligue 1
20 May 2023 - Ligue 1
Lille vs Marseille last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
O. Toure
Most goals and assists
Lille
Marseille
H. Igamane
(9 Goals)
M. Greenwood
(11 Goals)
F. Correia
(5 Assists)
P. Aubameyang
(8 Assists)
Lille and Marseille Stats in Ligue 1
Lille - Marseille Key Points
- Lille failed to win in four of their last nine outings.
- Marseille are winless in five of their last nine matches.
- Five draws were registered in these teams’ last 10 meetings.
- Away from home in the last 13 games, Marseille only won five.
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Our Lille vs Marseille Prediction
These two sides are building momentum as they set targets for European football next season. However, both teams’ results haven't been all consistent, and that could play out again here. Marseille, for example, was expected to blow away Toulouse last week to go top of the standings but could only draw.
Lille, on their part, have a record of struggling against the top teams, and this match fits that profile. As most of their latest meetings have seen spoils shared, we will back the same here. Our prediction for Lille v Marseille is a draw.