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Familiar foes Lesotho and South Africa will meet on Matchday 7 of the CAF World Cup Qualifiers this Friday in Bloemfontein. Likuena are in fifth place in Group C, while Bafana Bafana lead the group standings. Let’s get into the match prediction.
South Africa have opened a healthy six-point lead at the top of Group C. However, there is still uncertainty around whether they will be sanctioned for fielding an ineligible player earlier in the competition.
For now, Bafana Bafana can only focus on the task at hand and look to pick up from where they left off, beating Benin 2-0 in their last match to go four games unbeaten in this competition (W3 D1).
Notably, despite being the ‘away’ side, this match is actually being played in South Africa due to Lesotho not having a FIFA-approved stadium.
Meanwhile, behind South Africa, the table is still tightly compact, with just two points separating second-placed Rwanda (8 points) and fifth-placed Lesotho.
The Crocodiles played out a 1-1 draw against Amavubi in their last WCQ match and now have a record of W1 D3 L2 in this competition. Notably, they failed to score in three of their six games to date.
Lesotho were beaten by this opponent 2-0 in the reverse fixture and are winless in their last three against them across all competitions (D1 L2).
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What is the prediction for the football match between Lesotho and South Africa?
Our prediction for the Lesotho vs South Africa match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2025 between Lesotho and South Africa in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 12.6% for a win of Lesotho against South Africa with odds of 22 at Betobet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lesotho vs South Africa is 25.73% with odds of 5.25 at Bwin.
- Our prediction model gives a 61.67% chance ⭐ for a win of South Africa vs Lesotho with odds of 1.28 at Unibet.
Lesotho - South Africa Prediction and Best Odds:
| Lesotho South Africa Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa wins | 61.67% | 1.28 at Unibet |
| Under 2.5 | 73.47% | 2 at Vbet |
| Both Team To Score | 31.25% | 4.33 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: South Africa | 47.89% | 3.5 at Betfair |
Lesotho vs South Africa Form
Lesotho and South Africa's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
16 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
|
5
|
6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 |
Lesotho and South Africa Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
8 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
5 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - AFCON
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2024 - AFCON
15 Oct 2024 - AFCON
9 Sep 2024 - AFCON
3 Jul 2024 - COSAFA Cup
28 Jun 2024 - COSAFA Cup
11 Jun 2024 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
8 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
5 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - AFCON
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
15 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
11 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
8 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
15 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
13 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
11 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
10 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
7 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
8 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
15 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - AFCON
15 Oct 2024 - AFCON
Lesotho vs South Africa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
Lesotho - South Africa Key Points
- All six of Lesotho’s matches in this competition have ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Lesotho have failed to score in three of their six games in this competition.
- Lesotho have failed to score in five of their last eight matches across all competitions.
- Four of South Africa’s six matches in this competition have ended with under 2.5 goals.
- South Africa have kept clean sheets in each of their last three games against this opponent.
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Our Lesotho vs South Africa Prediction
While Lesotho have only won one match in this competition, they are still in the running to finish in the top two given how competitive Group C have been. However, they need to keep picking up points.
That may be difficult against the group leaders, who are, in essence, the home team here and have been excellent in defence in this competition so far. We feel the Scorpions will struggle to breach Bafana Bafana’s backline too often here. Our Lesotho vs South Africa prediction is under 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Lesotho South Africa
| Lesotho vs South Africa | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lesotho wins | 13 | 19 | +46.2% |
| Draw | 4.5 | 5 | +11.1% |
| South Africa wins | 1.22 | 1.25 | +2.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- South Africa is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 82.0% and is now 80.0% (-2.0%)