Italy - Coppa Italia
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Lazio and AC Milan are set to face off for the second straight week as they shift focus to the Coppa Italia. Their meeting this Thursday has the hallmarks of a thriller after their Serie A encounter was marred with controversy and dismissals. Read on for our prediction of the match.
It is another of the classic spurs between Lazio’s Maurizio Sarri and Milan’s Massimiliano Allegri. The two managers first faced off 22 years back, in Serie C, and in the latest 21 meetings, Allegri lost only four times to Sarri.
This is proving to be an interesting season for Italian football, and Lazio and AC Milan are well in the thick of things. Their first meeting of the season has already seen a change of guard at the league summit, yet one of the giants is set to exit the Coppa Italia. Will it be Milan, last year’s finalists, or Lazio, who are gunning for an eighth triumph in this tournament?
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What is the prediction for the football match between Lazio and AC Milan?
Our prediction for the Lazio vs AC Milan match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/12/2025 between Lazio and AC Milan in Coppa Italia :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.8% for a win of Lazio against AC Milan with odds of 3.4 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lazio vs AC Milan is 31.14% with odds of 3.25 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.06% chance ⭐ for a win of AC Milan vs Lazio with odds of 2.35 at Shangrila.
Lazio vs AC Milan Form
Lazio and AC Milan Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Serie A
23 Nov 2025 - Serie A
9 Nov 2025 - Serie A
3 Nov 2025 - Serie A
30 Oct 2025 - Serie A
26 Oct 2025 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Nov 2025 - Serie A
3 Nov 2025 - Serie A
26 Oct 2025 - Serie A
4 Oct 2025 - Serie A
21 Sept 2025 - Serie A
31 Aug 2025 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Serie A
9 Nov 2025 - Serie A
30 Oct 2025 - Serie A
19 Oct 2025 - Serie A
29 Sept 2025 - Serie A
14 Sept 2025 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Serie A
23 Nov 2025 - Serie A
8 Nov 2025 - Serie A
2 Nov 2025 - Serie A
28 Oct 2025 - Serie A
24 Oct 2025 - Serie A
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Serie A
2 Nov 2025 - Serie A
24 Oct 2025 - Serie A
19 Oct 2025 - Serie A
28 Sept 2025 - Serie A
23 Sept 2025 - Coppa Italia
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Nov 2025 - Serie A
8 Nov 2025 - Serie A
28 Oct 2025 - Serie A
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
20 Sept 2025 - Serie A
29 Aug 2025 - Serie A
Lazio vs AC Milan Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Nov 2025 - Serie A
2 Mar 2025 - Serie A
31 Aug 2024 - Serie A
1 Mar 2024 - Serie A
30 Sept 2023 - Serie A
6 May 2023 - Serie A
Lazio - AC Milan: Form Analysis
In a span of five days, Lazio and AC Milan are set to meet for the second time, now in the Coppa Italia round of 16.
A tense meeting in the league was settled by a goal as Lazio ran out 1-0 losers in San Siro this past weekend. The Biancocelesti were denied a late penalty, and their away-day woes extended, as they left Lombardy without much to show.
Lazio hasn't done well against Milan-based sides this season, earlier losing to Inter. Fortunately, their home form isn’t as poor as the run on the road.
The hosts are unbeaten in the last four home games and have won each of the latest three, keeping clean sheets.
The last time Lazio and Milan met in Coppa Italia, Milan won 4-0.
AC Milan have dominated recent matches against Lazio, losing just two of their last 10 meetings. They come here looking to extend not just that but also their decent run in the season.
The Rossoneri lost their opening game of the season against Cremonese and turned things around from that point. They haven't lost again in the 13 matches that followed.
The latest of them was a home win against Lazio. Having failed to win three of their last four away matches, Milan will hope such form doesn’t strike here.
Coached by the most successful manager in Coppa Italia history, Milan will go into this game feeling positive.
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Lazio vs AC Milan last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Missing players
S. Gigot
N. Tavares
MidfielderN. Rovella
ForwardT. Castellanos
M. Cancellieri
S. Gimenez
Lazio & AC Milan Squad Analysis
Taty Castellanos is back for Lazio after spending recent weeks out injured. The Argentinian played 28 minutes in the loss to Milan last time out.
It was his first game since October 4, and here he will want to add on to his attacking punch. He has five goal contributions, scoring twice and assisting the rest.
Without him, Lazio have definitely struggled in attack. The home team has failed to score in five of the last 10 matches, making this return very key. Sarri will not have the best of news on the injury front, though, with at least four other players set to sit out of this game.
Mattia Zaccagni and Matteo Guendouzi have created a combined 22 chances at Lazio this season.
AC Milan will be working overtime to have Christian Pulisic back in time for this match. The American, who has nine goal contributions this season, is struggling with a thigh injury.
He remains a doubt for this game, but Milan hasn't yet indicated he's out. Santiago Gimenez is still out for at least two more weeks as he battles an ankle injury.
It means Rafael Leao continues leading the line, coming here with six goals and two assists in the season.
Most goals and assists
Lazio
AC Milan
M. Cancellieri
(3 Goals)
,
M. Zaccagni
(3 Goals)
R. Leao
(5 Goals)
, 
C. Pulisic
(5 Goals)
T. Castellanos
(3 Assists)
L. Modric
(2 Assists)
,
C. Pulisic
(2 Assists)
Lazio - AC Milan Key Points
- Nine goals were scored in Milan’s last five matches.
- Lazio’s last seven matches produced under 2.5 goals.
- Five times in their last 10 games, Lazio failed to score.
- Lazio’s last five home games had an average of 2.4 goals.
- Three of Milan’s last five away matches had under 2.5 goals.
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Our Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction
We expect a number of changes in these teams’ lineups after their weekend Serie A meeting. With some crunch games coming up, both managers will feel the need to rest a few key players and rotate the squads. We thus don’t see this being a full-blooded battle for a quarter-final berth.
Milan missing key men in attack and Lazio only welcoming Castellanos back could mean reduced goalmouth action. As such, our prediction for Lazio v AC Milan is for less than 2.5 goals.
Lazio vs AC Milan - Other Interesting Predictions
AC Milan to win
While Lazio head into this encounter seeking revenge, it is Milan who look like odds-on favorites to claim the spoils. The visitors have won three of these teams’ last five meetings and only lost twice in their last six as visitors. Given their good run in the season, it is hard to see Milan losing here. Our second prediction is for AC Milan to win.