World - World Cup
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The Moi International Stadium in Nairobi will host the World Cup Qualifier clash between Kenya and Gambia on Friday. The Harambee Stars and the Scorpions are in fourth and fifth place, respectively, in CAF Group F. Let’s get into the match prediction.
With six points and nine separating them from second-placed Gabon, Kenya’s 2026 World Cup qualification dream will end if they lose here and the top two sides win their games.
The Harambee Stars were beaten by Gabon 2-1 in their last match in this competition and are now winless in their last four (D3 L1). Their only victory was against already-eliminated Seychelles.
Michael Olunga has been in good form both for club and country lately. He has netted four times in this competition and twice in three games for Al Arabi in the Qatar Stars League.
Meanwhile, Gambia are already out of contention of winning this group and anything but a win here will see them ruled out of reaching the possible second round as well.
The Scorpions were beaten by the Ivory Coast 1-0 in their last WCQ match. Aside from the Elephants, Gambia have scored two or more goals against all other teams in this group.
These two played to a thrilling 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture back in March, with Musa Barrow bagging a brace in the match.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Kenya and Gambia?
Our prediction for the Kenya vs Gambia match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2025 between Kenya and Gambia in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.3% for a win of Kenya against Gambia with odds of 2.3 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Kenya vs Gambia is 41.55% with odds of 3.23 at Vbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 22.15% chance ⭐ for a win of Gambia vs Kenya with odds of 3.8 at 22bet.
Kenya - Gambia Prediction and Best Odds:
| Kenya Gambia Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 41.55% | 3.23 at Vbet |
| Under 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.83 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 64.58% | 2.2 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 18.52% | 4.33 at Bet365 |
Kenya vs Gambia Form
Kenya and Gambia's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
|
5
|
6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Kenya and Gambia Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
7 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
7 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
10 Sep 2024 - AFCON
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - AFCON
15 Nov 2024 - AFCON
14 Oct 2024 - AFCON
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - AFCON
14 Oct 2024 - AFCON
8 Sep 2024 - AFCON
8 Jun 2024 - World Cup
23 Jan 2024 - AFCON
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
4 Sep 2024 - AFCON
11 Jun 2024 - World Cup
Kenya vs Gambia Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
Kenya - Gambia Key Points
- Four of Kenya’s six matches in this competition have ended with both teams scoring.
- Kenya have scored in each of their last five matches across all competitions.
- Four of Gambia’s six matches in this competition have ended with both teams scoring.
- Gambia have failed to keep a clean sheet in this competition.
- The reverse fixture ended in a 3-3 scoreline.
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Our Kenya vs Gambia Prediction
This is a crucial matchup for both these sides, as a defeat will likely end their 2026 World Cup journey. However, they both come into this fixture having only won one match in the competition to date.
Gambia have been very entertaining from an attacking perspective, but defensive frailties have outweighed their good work going forward. Given that both teams need all three points here, we’re expecting an entertaining, attacking game. Our Kenya vs Gambia prediction is both teams to score.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Kenya Gambia
| Kenya vs Gambia | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya wins | 2.5 | 2.2 | -12.0% |
| Draw | 2.88 | 3.1 | +7.6% |
| Gambia wins | 2.7 | 3.6 | +33.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 7.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 34.7% and is now 32.3% (-2.5%)