World - World Cup
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Italy will look to revive their push for World Cup qualification when they host Estonia on Friday in a Group I fixture in the 2026 UEFA qualifiers. This match at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo between the Blues and the Blueshirts comes with our prediction of Italy winning with a -3 European handicap.
With three points from two matches (W1, L1), Italy start this round in third position and are three points behind second-placed Israel. Estonia also have three points but have played four matches (W1, L3). Only the top two have a chance to qualify for the finals.
After starting the qualification campaign with a shattering 3-0 defeat away in Norway, Italy bounced back with a 2-0 home win over Moldova in the June qualifiers. That was their first victory after four games without a win (D1, L3) as they look to keep winning here. With former international Gennaro Gattuso taking charge, the Italians need a big win to revive their chances of reaching the finals for the first time since 2014.
Estonia lost three of their four qualifiers in this campaign (W1, L3), and their chances of qualification look remote. Their only win of the campaign came at Moldova (3-2). That came after three consecutive away defeats in the World Cup qualifiers, and that could continue here.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and Estonia?
Our prediction for the Italy vs Estonia match is: Italy -3 European Handicap.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2025 between Italy and Estonia in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 65.2% for a win of Italy against Estonia with odds of 1.07 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs Estonia is 17.77% with odds of 17 at Vbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 17.03% chance ⭐ for a win of Estonia vs Italy with odds of 50 at 22bet.
Italy - Estonia Prediction and Best Odds:
| Italy Estonia Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 65.2% | 1.07 at 22bet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.42% | 1.3 at William Hill |
| Both Team To Score | 54.17% | 2.9 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time / Full-time : Italy/Italy | 37.75% | 1.36 at Vbet |
Italy vs Estonia Form
Italy and Estonia's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
|
4
|
3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 |
Italy and Estonia Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Jun 2024 - Baltic Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jun 2024 - Baltic Cup
Italy vs Estonia Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
11 Nov 2020 - International Friendlies
Italy against Estonia Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Most goals and assists
Italy
Estonia
G. Raspadori
(2 Goals)
,
M. Retegui
(2 Goals)
M. Kait
(2 Goals)
Italy - Estonia Key Points
- Italy won five of their last ten matches in all competitions.
- Italy’s last six wins in home World Cup qualifiers have come with a clean sheet.
- Italy won all seven previous matches against Estonia, bust most of those played in 2011 or before.
- Estonia conceded three or more goals in six of their last nine matches when playing teams in the top-30 FIFA rankings.
- Estonia lost four of their last five games, winning only once.
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Our Italy vs Estonia Prediction
The pressure is on Italy and their new manager Gattuso to change their World Cup qualification fortunes. They are looking to reach their first finals since 2014, and their start has been inauspicious with a win and a loss. Playing Estonia gives them the perfect chance to regroup. The visitors haven’t performed well against top-ranked teams, and this could be a tough challenge once again.
Italy could go for goals to highlight their supremacy and beat the handicap market. Our Italy vs Estonia prediction is Italy -3 European Handicap.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Italy Estonia
| Italy vs Estonia | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 1.1 | 1.05 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 10 | 15 | +50.0% |
| Estonia wins | 17 | 23 | +35.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Italy is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 90.9% and is now 95.2% (4.3%)