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The UEFA World Cup Qualifiers get underway in Group D as Iceland face Azerbaijan in their opening game. Read on to find out our Iceland vs Azerbaijan match prediction.
With Strákarnir Okkar needing a fast start in a group containing France and Ukraine, this match is nothing short of a must-win game. Milli Komanda, meanwhile, arrive on the back of a long winless streak, and given the stakes, the national team could find themselves under pressure from the opening whistle.
Recent results tell us much about each side’s current state. Iceland were narrowly beaten 1-0 by Northern Ireland in their last outing, but they dominated possession with 66% of the ball and showed resilience despite the result. That performance followed an impressive 3-1 victory over Scotland, showing Strákarnir Okkar can find the net against high-level opposition.
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, extended their winless run to ten games with a 2-1 loss to Hungary, leaving them without momentum or belief heading into this qualifier. The National Team have now failed to score in five of their last six matches, and with Iceland’s consistent scoring form, the gap between the sides feels difficult to ignore.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Iceland and Azerbaijan?
Our prediction for the Iceland vs Azerbaijan match is: Iceland to win.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2025 between Iceland and Azerbaijan in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 60.86% for a win of Iceland against Azerbaijan with odds of 1.46 at Bwin.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Iceland vs Azerbaijan is 21.45% with odds of 4.7 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 17.69% chance ⭐ for a win of Azerbaijan vs Iceland with odds of 8 at Betfred.
Iceland - Azerbaijan Prediction and Best Odds:
| Iceland Azerbaijan Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Iceland wins | 60.86% | 1.46 at Bwin |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.97% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | 2 at William Hill |
| Half-time / Full-time : Iceland/Iceland | 40.26% | 2.22 at Vbet |
Iceland vs Azerbaijan Form
Iceland and Azerbaijan's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
|
4
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 |
Iceland and Azerbaijan Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Oct 2023 - Euro
13 Oct 2023 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
22 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
22 Mar 2025 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2023 - Euro
Iceland against Azerbaijan Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Most goals and assists
Iceland
Azerbaijan
I. Johanneson
(2 Goals)
Iceland - Azerbaijan Key Points
- Azerbaijan are winless in their last ten games, recording eight losses and two draws.
- Azerbaijan have lost by two or more goals in nine of their last ten defeats.
- Azerbaijan have failed to score in five of their last six games.
- Iceland have scored in nine of their last ten matches.
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Our Iceland vs Azerbaijan Prediction
In a group where France and Ukraine are expected to dominate, Iceland’s only realistic path forward is by beating Azerbaijan.. Iceland enters this game with the confidence of scoring in nine of their last ten matches and the knowledge that they can compete with stronger opposition, as their 3-1 win over Scotland proved.
In contrast, Milli Komanda remains toothless, struggling for goals and results across their last ten outings. With Iceland fresher, sharper, and highly motivated, we expect them to start Group D with all three points. Hence, our Iceland vs Azerbaijan prediction is Iceland to win.Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Iceland Azerbaijan
| Iceland vs Azerbaijan | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland wins | 1.42 | 1.44 | +1.4% |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.33 | 0% |
| Azerbaijan wins | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Iceland is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 70.4% and is now 69.4% (-1.0%)