ATP - ATP Australian Open
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Sebastian Baez has been a revelation on outdoor hard courts this month. He takes on fellow unseeded player Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in round one of the 2026 Australian Open. Can Baez get a victory? Read our match prediction below.
Round two of this Grand Slam will see the winner face either unseeded Cristian Garin or 22nd-seed Luciano Darderi.
2024 and 2025 saw Sebastian Baez win eight outdoor hard court matches and lose 18 times. He arrives in Melbourne with a 2026 record of seven wins and one loss on this surface. He won seven in a row before losing to Jakub Mensik in the Auckland final.
He's now 36th in the live rankings, 25 places above his opponent. Baez made it to round three of this tournament two years ago. Not last year though as he lost in round one of all four Grand Slams.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has never made it past round one of this Grand Slam.
Only in two out of 12 Grand Slam events has he got past this stage. He has also made a steady start to the new year with quarter-finals reached in both Brisbane and Auckland. As usual he's playing lots of tie-breaks with seven in his last six matches.
We tip Baez to win.
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Who will win the Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez match is: Sebastian Baez wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez game on 20/01/2026 of the current ATP Australian Open season:
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has a 45.51% chance to win against Sebastian Baez according to Shangrila ⭐ with the odds of 1.72.
- Sebastian Baez has a 54.49% probability of winning facing Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ⭐ with odds of 2.26 at Tonybet.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has a 45.51 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 45.51 % |
| Sebastian Baez | 54.49 % |
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez Form
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Sebastian Baez Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
15 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
14 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
13 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
9 Jan 2026 - Brisbane International
8 Jan 2026 - Brisbane International
6 Jan 2026 - Brisbane International
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
17 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
16 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
15 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
14 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
12 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
7 Jan 2026 - United Cup
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Sebastian Baez Key Points
- Baez has won seven of his eight outdoor hard court matches this year.
- Baez was the runner-up in Auckland last week.
- Perricard has never made it past round one of an outdoor hard court Grand Slam.
- Players beaten by Baez this year include Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton.
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Our Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez Prediction
A win for Sebastian Baez will see him equal the number of outdoor hard court victories he had in 2024 and 2025. This year has seen him defeat two of the world's top ten and reach the final in Auckland.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has made it to the last eight in both of his tournaments this year. He has a poor Grand Slam record though with no outdoor hard court victories. Our Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Sebastian Baez prediction is Sebastian Baez wins.