World - World Cup
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Bulgaria and Spain will get their 2026 World Cup qualification campaign underway on Thursday when they meet at the Vasil Levski National Stadium. Lavovete and La Roja are drawn alongside Georgia and Turkey in UEFA Group E. Let’s get into the match prediction.
Bulgaria enter this competition ranked 84th according to FIFA, but last made it to the World Cup proper in 1998 in France. They are third-favourite to finish top of Group E.
Lavovete played a couple of warm-up friendlies in June and drew with Cyprus 2-2 before losing to Greece 4-0 days later, which extended their winless run to five games across all competitions (D2 L2).
The hosts have also failed to win their last four home games, but have kept clean sheets in three of their last six on home soil.
Meanwhile, Spain have qualified for every World Cup since 1978 and reached the round of 16 in the past two editions.
La Roja have been in sensational form over the last few years, now ranked second in the world by FIFA. Their only defeat since March 2023 was in their last match, when they lost to Portugal on penalties in the Nations League final in June.
The visitors have scored two or more goals in each of their last seven matches, but only managed to keep one clean sheet during that period.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Bulgaria and Spain?
Our prediction for the Bulgaria vs Spain match is: Bulgaria over 1.5 shots on target.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/09/2025 between Bulgaria and Spain in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 13.58% for a win of Bulgaria against Spain with odds of 41 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bulgaria vs Spain is 36.83% with odds of 14.5 at Bwin.
- Our prediction model gives a 49.59% chance ⭐ for a win of Spain vs Bulgaria with odds of 1.07 at William Hill.
Bulgaria - Spain Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bulgaria Spain Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spain wins | 49.59% | 1.07 at William Hill |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.08% | 1.5 at William Hill |
| Both Team To Score | 59.52% | 3.25 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time: Spain/Spain | 24.17% | 1.45 at Vbet |
Bulgaria vs Spain Form
Bulgaria and Spain's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
|
4
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 |
Bulgaria and Spain Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
22 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
5 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Jul 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
Bulgaria against Spain Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Most goals and assists
Bulgaria
Spain
M. Merino
(1 Goals)
,
M. Cucurella
(1 Goals)
,
M. Oyarzabal
(1 Goals)
Bulgaria - Spain Key Points
- Bulgaria have recorded over 1.5 shots on target in each of their last six games.
- Bulgaria have only failed to score in one of their last six home games.
- Spain have conceded two or more goals in each of their last five matches.
- Spain have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six games.
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Our Bulgaria vs Spain Prediction
Spain have been sensational over the past few years, and would be entering this match riding a 19-match unbeaten streak had it not been for that painful defeat to Portugal in the Nations League final.
The odds illustrate what everyone expects - a lopsided affair with the visitors dominating on all fronts. This should be a banker for Accas, but while we expect Spain to pick up a comfortable win, we feel Bulgaria will manage at least a couple of shots on target. Our Bulgaria vs Spain prediction is Bulgaria over 1.5 shots on target.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bulgaria Spain
| Bulgaria vs Spain | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria wins | 21 | 41 | +95.2% |
| Draw | 8 | 13 | +62.5% |
| Spain wins | 1.1 | 1.05 | -4.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Spain is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 90.9% and is now 95.2% (4.3%)