Portugal - Liga Portugal
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The 13th round of matches in the Portuguese Primeira Liga will start on a high, with the first installment of the Lisbon Derby. Jose Mourinho’s Benfica plays host to Sporting Lisbon this Friday at the Estadio da Luz. While this is their first league meeting of the season, it is the second encounter, following their Super Cup clash to curtain raise the 2025/26 campaign. We have the prediction for this match below.
Benfica edged Sporting 1-0 in the Super Cup courtesy of Vangelis Pavlidis’ goal and will be looking to make it two in a row here. The two sides are chasing league leaders Porto, but it is Benfica who start the weekend lowest. They are third, three points behind their visitors.
Sporting, on their part, is three points behind Porto. The only side in the top three to have tasted defeat, Sporting will hope to avoid a similar outcome here.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon match is: draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/12/2025 between Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon in Liga Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 34.23% for a win of Benfica Lisbon against Sporting Lisbon with odds of 2.7 at Unibet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon is 24.68% with odds of 3.35 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.1% chance ⭐ for a win of Sporting Lisbon vs Benfica Lisbon with odds of 2.77 at Shangrila.
Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon Form
Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon's standings in the Liga Portugal
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
31 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
|
3
|
28 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Taca de Portugal
9 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
29 Oct 2025 - Portugal League Cup
25 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
26 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Taca de Portugal
1 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
17 Oct 2025 - Taca de Portugal
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Taca de Portugal
8 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
31 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Taca de Portugal
31 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
28 Oct 2025 - Portugal League Cup
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
26 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Oct 2025 - Taca de Portugal
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
31 Jul 2025 - Portugal Super Cup
25 May 2025 - Taca de Portugal
10 May 2025 - Liga Portugal
11 Jan 2025 - Portugal League Cup
29 Dec 2024 - Liga Portugal
6 Apr 2024 - Liga Portugal
Benfica Lisbon - Sporting Lisbon: Form Analysis
Benfica are one of two sides yet to taste defeat this season in the league. They retained that status after a late comeback to beat Nacional 2-1.
However, four draws in their opening 12 matches have left the Eagles six points off the mark. Any plans to close in on the leaders should start with beating Sporting, or at least avoiding defeat.
Benfica have already drawn with Porto in what they felt were dropped points. They’ve also lost points from winning positions at home to Santa Clara, Rio Ave, and Casa Pia.
This inconsistency, Jose Mourinho knows, has to stop. Benfica have collected 12 of their 28 points at home, after winning half of their six matches there.
Sporting haven't dropped league points on the road this season.
Sporting Lisbon have posted four straight wins across all competitions. They haven't tasted defeat since their 2-1 loss to Napoli in the Champions League and will look to keep this run going.
A dominant outing and 4-0 triumph over Estrela in their last game was their perfect warmup for this game. Facing the top teams has formed Sporting’s biggest trouble this season.
They have lost to FC Porto and drawn with Braga on the two occasions that they failed to win in the league. Having collected 18 of their 31 points on the road, Sporting will have no reason to feel jittery about this.
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Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
A. Bah
ForwardBruma
D. Lukebakio
H. Araujo
D. Braganca
ForwardN. Santos
F. Ioannidis
Benfica Lisbon & Sporting Lisbon Squad Analysis
After serving a one-match ban last time out, Richard Rios will be available for selection at Benfica. A defensive player, Rios has an impressive shot map for the season, having attempted 32.
Though he is yet to score in the league, Rios has an xG of 2.69 and will look to return with a bang. Vangelis Pavlidis will be hoping to add to his 10 goals as he chases the Golden Boot.
The Greek also has three assists to his name and comes into this game with a 10.12 xG, and 51% of his 39 shots were on target. Vangelis has already scored against Sporting this season.
One goal separates Vangelis and Suarez in the top scorers’ list.
At Sporting, the man sure to lead the attack is Colombian Luis Suarez. In 12 league matches this season, he has 11 goal contributions. In the list of top scorers, he only trails Vangelis by a goal.
His nine goals came as a result of taking 55 shots so far, 45% being on target. His xG being at 9.61 means he could be among the scorers in this match.
On the long-term injury list, Daniel Braganca is still a regular as he nurses cruciate ligament pain. His attacking acumen and creativity will be missed here.
Most goals and assists
Benfica Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon
V. Pavlidis
(12 Goals)
L. Suarez
(11 Goals)
D. Lukebakio
(3 Assists)
G. Quenda
(6 Assists)
,
F. Trincao
(6 Assists)
Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon Stats in Liga Portugal
Benfica Lisbon - Sporting Lisbon Key Points
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last four matches.
- Sporting hasn't lost a game in the last 11 outings.
- Twice in Sporting’s last four away matches, they posted draws.
- When hosting this match, Benfica are unbeaten in five but drew four.
- Three of the last four meetings between these teams ended in draws.
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Our Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction
These two sides are coming off good runs, so they have the momentum to carry them past this game. While both will want to bank the three points available, they will largely be cautious. Benfica will also be banking on their home form in this fixture.
They haven't lost to Sporting when hosting them, but four of those ended in draws. Recent results show these teams come here evenly matched. Our prediction for Benfica v Sporting Lisbon is for the match to end in a draw.
Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon - Other Interesting Predictions
BTTS
This match rarely ends without goals. Not even one of the last 10 meetings between these teams saw a goalless draw. It gets more interesting when Benfica are hosting. This fixture has seen both teams score in the last nine at Benfica. Therefore, our second prediction here is for both teams to score.