Spain - LaLiga
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A tough run lately in La Liga has seen Real Madrid lose their position at the league summit. They have a chance to reclaim it, though, as they travel to eighth-placed Athletic Bilbao on Wednesday. Read on for our prediction of the match.
Athletic Bilbao aren’t having the best of times in their season. Injuries, a poor run of form, and sheer bad luck have conspired to keep them out of European slots at the moment.
Athletic sit eighth, four points off the top six and 13 behind Real Madrid. But they are coming off a win, having beaten Levante 2-0 for a perfect warm-up for this match. That was only their fourth win in 15 matches.
Recent results and a rumored dressing room disunity are among issues threatening Real Madrid’s push for any silverware. Los Blancos come into this game having failed to win for the fourth time in five matches.
They played to a 1-1 draw with relegation-threatened Girona in their last match, leaving them with one win in five outings. In those five games, Real kept just one clean sheet, but they failed to score in the same game—a Madrid derby against Rayo Vallecano.
In the other four matches, Real conceded first. A run of six wins in their last 10 matches will still place Real as favorites.
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What is the prediction for the football match between Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid match is: Real Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/12/2025 between Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 28.23% for a win of Athletic Bilbao against Real Madrid with odds of 4.61 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid is 28.93% with odds of 3.91 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 42.84% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao with odds of 1.88 at Betway.
Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Athletic Bilbao Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 42.84% | 1.88 at Betway |
| Under 2.5 | 65.21% | 2 at Betfred |
| Both Team To Score | 44.58% | 1.83 at Betway |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Real Madrid | 22.32% | 5 at Unibet |
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Form
Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
36 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
|
7
|
23 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | -5 |
Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
20 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
4 Dec 2024 - LaLiga
31 Mar 2024 - LaLiga
12 Aug 2023 - LaLiga
4 Jun 2023 - LaLiga
22 Jan 2023 - LaLiga
Athletic Bilbao against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
Y. Alvarez
U. Egiluz
MidfielderB. Prados
O. Sancet
ForwardI. Williams
M. Sannadi
D. Carvajal
D. Alaba
Most goals and assists
Athletic Bilbao
Real Madrid
G. Guruzeta
(4 Goals)
,
R. Navarro
(4 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(25 Goals)
A. Berenguer
(3 Assists)
,
N. Williams
(3 Assists)
A. Guler
(7 Assists)
Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid Key Points
- Athletic Bilbao lost four of their last seven matches.
- Athletic managed just four wins in their last 15 matches.
- Real Madrid posted six wins in their last 10 games in all competitions.
- Real Madrid won five of their last seven away matches against Athletic Bilbao.
- Across all competitions, Real Madrid beat Athletic seven times in 10 meetings.
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Our Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Prediction
Real Madrid have struggled a lot in their recent outings, and here they are getting into a tough match. They have, however, dominated this fixture, and the awakening they have now after dropping to second will push them to do better.
Athletic Club has the profile of a team capable of causing Real Madrid problems, but their struggles are even deeper. With just four wins in the last 14 games, Athletic are coming here as underdogs. Our prediction for Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid is that Real Madrid wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Athletic Bilbao Real Madrid
| Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 4.5 | 4 | -11.1% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 3.75 | +4.2% |
| Real Madrid wins | 1.73 | 1.85 | +6.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 57.8% and is now 54.1% (-3.7%)