WTA - WTA US Open
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Aryna Sabalenka’s title defence at the US Open will meet another tough hurdle this Friday, when she squares off with Jessica Pegula. The two are facing off in the semi-final and below is our match prediction.
Sabalenka has equaled her career’s most final-four appearances after her quarter-final opponent Marketa Vondrousova withdrew from the competition. The Belarusian will welcome an effortless pass to the semis after a tough run all the way.
She will definitely have the advantage in this match, a repeat of the 2024 US Open final and her 10th semi-final of the season. Sabalenka has been to each of the three Grand Slam semis this season, losing at Wimbledon.
She’s also been to each of the last four semi-finals at the US Open and is placed top in the live rankings.
Homegirl Pegula has also had a great run to this end and will be determined to get her revenge here. Sixth in the live rankings, the American confirmed her semi-final place with a straight-set win against Barbora Krejcikova.
Pegula’s chase for a first Grand Slam title was stopped in the final here last season by the same opponent she meets next. She would fall again to Sabalenka’s racket in Miami earlier this season and now trails 7-2 in the head-to-head records.
With a 5-0 record at the semis this season, Pegula will be confident of overcoming Sabalenka, who has won both of their previous Grand Slam duels.
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Who will win the Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula match is: Sabalenka to win in three sets.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula game on 05/09/2025 of the current WTA US Open season:
- Aryna Sabalenka has a 66.03% chance to win against Jessica Pegula according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 1.3.
- Jessica Pegula has a 33.97% probability of winning facing Aryna Sabalenka ⭐ with odds of 3.79 at 22bet.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Aryna Sabalenka has a 66.03 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 66.03 % |
| Jessica Pegula | 33.97 % |
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Form
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
3 Sep 2025 - WTA US Open
1 Sep 2025 - WTA US Open
30 Aug 2025 - WTA US Open
28 Aug 2025 - WTA US Open
24 Aug 2025 - WTA US Open
15 Aug 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
2 Sep 2025 - WTA US Open
31 Aug 2025 - WTA US Open
29 Aug 2025 - WTA US Open
27 Aug 2025 - WTA US Open
25 Aug 2025 - WTA US Open
13 Aug 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
80 %
20 %
29 Mar 2025 - WTA Miami
7 Sep 2024 - WTA US Open
19 Aug 2024 - WTA Cincinnati Open
31 Oct 2023 - WTA Doha
4 Nov 2022 - WTA Doha
Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula Key Points
- Pegula dropped six sets in her last 10 matches.
- Sabalenka leads Pegula 9-2 in head-to-head records.
- In her last 14 matches, Sabalenka suffered two defeats.
- Pegula failed to win a set in just one of her last 21 matches.
- Sabalenka won both Grand Slam meetings between these two.
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Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka has beaten Jessica Pegula in their two meetings at the Grand Slam level; last year here and at the 2020 French Open. She’s also beaten her this season, and having had a walkover in the quarters, Sabalenka comes here the fresher one.
Pegula will, however, not be an easy opponent, as the American has won in straight sets all her matches here thus far. Only one of these players’ nine meetings produced three sets, but going by the way they’ve been playing, we may see a shift here. Our prediction for Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula is for Sabalenka to win in three sets.