Bet and Win

Italy - Serie A

AC Milan

18/01/2026 20:45

Lecce

Prediction :

AC Milan to win & under 2.5 goals

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Lecce will return to San Siro for the second Serie A game in a week, this time to face AC Milan. The visitors arrive for this game placed just above the relegation zone, while Milan are second, in the thick of the title race. Read on to find our prediction of this match.

Lecce put up a strong fight in their last game, away to Inter Milan, but could only hold off for a 1-0 defeat. They are left with just four wins in the league this season.

Salentini must collect at least a point here to be sure of staying outside the bottom three. Their 11th league loss of the season has them precariously three points above the drop zone.

AC Milan have had their shaky moments in recent matches and dropped crucial points along the way. They were, however, determined not to lose more in their last outing, as they claimed a 2-1 win at Como.

In that game, for the third straight time, Milan had to come from behind. It has been a clear show of their defensive shortcomings in the last three games.

For this reason, they will be happy to face the league’s lowest-scoring team. Lecce have averaged 0.65 goals per game, while Milan has conceded 0.8 on average.

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What is the prediction for the football match between AC Milan and Lecce?

Our prediction for the AC Milan vs Lecce match is: AC Milan to win & under 2.5 goals.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/01/2026 between AC Milan and Lecce in Serie A :

The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 68.38% for a win of AC Milan against Lecce with odds of 1.32 at 888Starz.
The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AC Milan vs Lecce is 25.09% with odds of 5.6 at Tonybet.
Our prediction model gives a 6.53% chance ⭐ for a win of Lecce vs AC Milan with odds of 12.4 at 888Starz.

AC Milan - Lecce Prediction and Best Odds:

AC Milan Lecce Prediction	Probability	Odds
AC Milan wins	68.38%	1.32 at 888Starz
Under 2.5	56.85%	1.98 at Tonybet
Both Team To Score: No	60%	1.53 at Bet365
Half-time / Full-time : AC Milan/AC Milan	30.84%	1.83 at Bet365

AC Milan vs Lecce Form

AC Milan and Lecce's standings in the Serie A

Teams	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2 AC Milan	43	20	12	7	1	+17
18 Lecce	17	20	4	5	11	-15

AC Milan and Lecce Last Matches

AC Milan Last matches

All Home Away

L W W D D W

Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals

50% BTTS

1.5 Goals scored

0.83 Goals conceded

33% Over 2.5

67% Under 2.5

15 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Como 1907

1 : 3

AC Milan

11 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Fiorentina

1 : 1

AC Milan

8 Jan 2026 - Serie A

AC Milan

1 : 1

Genoa

2 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Cagliari

0 : 1

AC Milan

28 Dec 2025 - Serie A

AC Milan

3 : 0

Hellas Verona

18 Dec 2025 - Italian Super Cup

Napoli

2 : 0

AC Milan

D W W D W D

Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals

50% BTTS

1.67 Goals scored

0.83 Goals conceded

50% Over 2.5

50% Under 2.5

8 Jan 2026 - Serie A

AC Milan

1 : 1

Genoa

28 Dec 2025 - Serie A

AC Milan

3 : 0

Hellas Verona

14 Dec 2025 - Serie A

AC Milan

2 : 2

Sassuolo

29 Nov 2025 - Serie A

AC Milan

1 : 0

Lazio

2 Nov 2025 - Serie A

AC Milan

1 : 0

Roma

24 Oct 2025 - Serie A

AC Milan

2 : 2

Pisa SC

L W L W D W

Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals

50% BTTS

1.33 Goals scored

1.17 Goals conceded

33% Over 2.5

67% Under 2.5

15 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Como 1907

1 : 3

AC Milan

11 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Fiorentina

1 : 1

AC Milan

2 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Cagliari

0 : 1

AC Milan

18 Dec 2025 - Italian Super Cup

Napoli

2 : 0

AC Milan

8 Dec 2025 - Serie A

Torino FC

2 : 3

AC Milan

4 Dec 2025 - Coppa Italia

Lazio

1 : 0

AC Milan

Lecce Last matches

All Home Away

W L D L L L

Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2 Total goals

33% BTTS

0.5 Goals scored

1.5 Goals conceded

33% Over 2.5

67% Under 2.5

14 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Inter Milan

1 : 0

Lecce

11 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Lecce

1 : 2

Parma

6 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Lecce

0 : 2

Roma

3 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Juventus

1 : 1

Lecce

27 Dec 2025 - Serie A

Lecce

0 : 3

Como 1907

12 Dec 2025 - Serie A

Lecce

1 : 0

Pisa SC

D W W L L L

Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2 Total goals

33% BTTS

0.67 Goals scored

1.33 Goals conceded

50% Over 2.5

50% Under 2.5

11 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Lecce

1 : 2

Parma

6 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Lecce

0 : 2

Roma

27 Dec 2025 - Serie A

Lecce

0 : 3

Como 1907

12 Dec 2025 - Serie A

Lecce

1 : 0

Pisa SC

30 Nov 2025 - Serie A

Lecce

2 : 1

Torino FC

8 Nov 2025 - Serie A

Lecce

0 : 0

Hellas Verona

L W L L D L

Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals

33% BTTS

0.67 Goals scored

1.5 Goals conceded

17% Over 2.5

83% Under 2.5

14 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Inter Milan

1 : 0

Lecce

3 Jan 2026 - Serie A

Juventus

1 : 1

Lecce

7 Dec 2025 - Serie A

Cremonese

2 : 0

Lecce

23 Nov 2025 - Serie A

Lazio

2 : 0

Lecce

2 Nov 2025 - Serie A

Fiorentina

0 : 1

Lecce

25 Oct 2025 - Serie A

Udinese

3 : 2

Lecce

AC Milan vs Lecce Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

AC Milan

83 %

Draw

17 %

Lecce

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

3.33

Total goals

33.33%

BTTS

2.67

Goals scored

0.67

Goals conceded

83.33%

Over 2.5

16.67%

Under 2.5

23 Sept 2025 - Coppa Italia

AC Milan

3 : 0

Lecce

29 Aug 2025 - Serie A

Lecce

0 : 2

AC Milan

8 Mar 2025 - Serie A

Lecce

2 : 3

AC Milan

27 Sept 2024 - Serie A

AC Milan

3 : 0

Lecce

6 Apr 2024 - Serie A

AC Milan

3 : 0

Lecce

11 Nov 2023 - Serie A

Lecce

2 : 2

AC Milan

AC Milan against Lecce Lineups: Starting 11

AC Milan

Formation : 3 - 5 - 2

M. Maignan

F. Tomori

M. Gabbia

K. De Winter

A. Saelemaekers

S. Ricci

A. Jashari

A. Rabiot

P. Estupinan

C. Pulisic

R. Leao

S. Pierotti

N. Stulic

R. Sottil

L. Coulibaly

Y. Ramadani

O. Gandelman

A. Gallo

Tiago Gabriel

J. Siebert

C. Ndaba

W. Falcone

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

Lecce

Substitutes

AC Milan

Goalkeeper

L. Torriani

P. Terracciano

Defender

S. Pavlovic

D. Bartesaghi

Z. Athekame

D. Odogu

Midfielder

Y. Fofana

L. Modric

R. Loftus-Cheek

Forward

C. Nkunku

N. Fullkrug

Lecce

Goalkeeper

J. Samooja

C. Fruchtl

Defender

M. Ignacio

G. Jean

C. Kouassi

S. Fofana

Midfielder

F. Marchwinski

A. Sala

K. N’Dri

M. Kaba

O. Ngom

T. Helgason

Y. Maleh

Forward

L. Banda

T. Morente

Missing players

AC Milan

Forward

S. Gimenez

Lecce

Defender

D. Melo Veiga

K. Gaspar

Forward

M. Berisha

F. Camarda

Most goals and assists

AC Milan

Lecce

Top Goalscorer

C. Pulisic (8 Goals)

Top Goalscorer

K. N’Dri (2 Goals) , Mali

L. Coulibaly (2 Goals) , Albania

M. Berisha (2 Goals) , Zambia

L. Banda (2 Goals) , Serbia

N. Stulic (2 Goals)

Best assists

A. Rabiot (3 Assists)

Best assists

M. Berisha (3 Assists)

AC Milan and Lecce Stats in Serie A

AC Milan

Lecce

60%

Wins

20%

Losses

55%

35%

Draws

25%

2.45

Average goals per match

2.05

1.65

Goals scored per match

0.65

0.8

Goals conceded per match

1.4

50%

Under 2.5 goals

65%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

45%

No goals conceded

30%

55%

BTTS

35%

AC Milan - Lecce Key Points

Six of Milan’s last 10 matches had under 2.5 goals.
Milan are conceding 0.8 goals per match.
Lecce are scoring 0.65 goals per league game.
Lecce are the lowest-scoring side in the league.
Milan have beaten Lecce in five straight games.

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Our AC Milan vs Lecce Prediction

This match will mark the third meeting between these two sides this season alone. Milan won both games, though the league meeting ended in under 2.5 goals. The two wins were an extension of Milan’s dominant ways in this fixture, and we expect the same to extend here.

This match could also turn out to be a low-scoring affair. Six of Milan’s last 10 matches had under three goals, and one of the teams playing here is the lowest-scoring side in Serie A. Our prediction for AC Milan v Lecce is for AC Milan to win & under 2.5 goals.

Prediction :

AC Milan to win & under 2.5 goals

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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis AC Milan Lecce

AC Milan vs Lecce	Opening odds	Pre-match odds	Odds Movements
AC Milan wins	1.34	1.32	-1.5%
Draw	5.22	5.6	+7.3%
Lecce wins	12.8	12.4	-3.1%

Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

AC Milan is most likely to win
The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.5% since opening
The probability of this result was 74.6% and is now 75.8% (1.1%)